The National Football League renews the oldest rivalry in their game this Sunday when the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears. This one has a lot of meaning too.
No team in football has a better record since the third week of the season than the Bears. Their nine wins in ten games has vaulted Ben Johnson’s squad to first place in the talent latent NFC North Division. They arrive at Lambeau Field on Sunday with a half game lead over the Packers given Green Bay has a tie on their season record in a slot the Bears earned a win.
The books set a line on this game that seemed out of whack with the first place Bears getting 6½ points on the spread. Seems like a lot of points to be giving a first-place team that just dominated the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles on their home field. Last week, in a Friday special event, the Bears dominated Jalen Hurts and Company with a 22-15 victory at Lincoln Financial Field.
The line seems even more bloated when considering that before the season started, before we knew Johson would have such a spectacular year as the Bears head coach, the line on this game was pegged with the homestanding Packers favored by 3½ points.
Okay, both these teams have had extra time to prepare for this game, the Packers beat the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving the day before the Bears downed the Eagles. But why is the line so high? After all, the Bears have been playing so well and the Packers stumbled in November with losses to the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles and a narrow win over the talent challenged New York Giants.
What do the books know that the general wagering public doesn't?
I ask that because the gaudy point spread has sent the wagering public to the window to get down on Chicago like Swallows to Capistrano. We will know just how high of a percentage the public is backing the Bears with our weekend canvas of sportsbooks, but early returns indicate that more than 70% of the wagers are backing the Bears on the road here.
You can’t blame them for taking the huge number on the spread with a first-place team.
The Packers have struggled to beat the spread this season and while the Bears, since Week Three, have compiled a 9-1 straight-up mark they are also an impressive 8-2 against the point spread. The Packers, during the same stretch, are 6-3-1 straight-up but a losing 3-7 against the line.
Here, I suggest, is how many of the people heading to the betting windows are seeing this game … they get the better team with a generous point spread.
I see it quite differently.
I see the books setting a trap for the gamblers. Why else would the line be bloated and prompt the public to back the dog if the favorite wasn’t going to win? If the books wanted to balance the wagering on this game, or get more action on the Packers, they would have opened with a lower number and after the public came in on the Chicago side moved the spread to attract Green Bay money.
They are not.
They have the look of a Cheshire Cat grin while accepting Chicago wagers.
Sunday, we can wipe that sly smile off our books faces with a winning Green Bay wager.
Qoxhi Picks: Green Bay Packers (-6½) over Chicago Bears